5. Seattle Seahawks – Lucky to make the play-offs in the first place thanks to an inspired performance by Charlie Whitehurst in Week 17, and even luckier to beat the Saints in the wildcard, I doubt the Seahawks will have as much good fortune this time around. Letting Matt Hasselbeck depart to the Tennessee Titans and replacing him with Tarvaris Jackson is a huge gamble, and one that I just don’t see paying off. The other three NFC West teams also look stronger and better equipped to wrestle the division title away from the Seahawks. Without winning the division, it’s unrealistic to believe Seattle has a chance of a wildcard berth with so many other teams in the NFC appearing to be much stronger on paper.
4. Kansas City Chiefs – Last year the Chiefs had a stellar season which was built around their success at Arrowhead Stadium, before faltering at their very own self-proclaimed fortress in the play-offs. The majority of the Chiefs’ triumphs were against below-par teams and it is questionable whether Matt Cassel will have as much success with a tougher schedule. Add this to the fact that the Chargers will likely be back to their very best, and it looks like the Chiefs may have to watch the play-offs from the sidelines this season.
3. Chicago Bears – In 2010, the Bears claimed the NFC North crown ahead of eventual Super Bowl winners, the Green Bay Packers. Chicago’s season was defined by a series of ground-out wins, with only one word coming to mind, ‘ugly’. The Bears will still be coming back with a strong defense this season, held together by LB Brian Urlacher, the heart and soul of the defensive unit.
Of course, they will always have their home-field advantage – the terrible turf, coupled with adverse weather conditions, always seem to trouble any team that sets foot on Soldier Field. However, there is a question mark over quarterback Jay Cutler. Usually a leader brimming with arrogance, he appeared to be dependable throughout 2010, up until his team reached the play-offs. Cutler has shown signs of coming unstuck a little too easily. In the Bears' NFC Championship loss to the Packers, Cutler went off injured at half-time and failed to return from the locker room to support his teammates. For this act of desertion in the team’s hour of need, many fans lost their faith in the QB.
One of the Bears' most glaring weaknesses is their offensive line, although much of this can be attributed to the system employed by offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Last season, the OL struggled mightily to keep Jay Cutler upright, leading to the QB being sacked 52 times - 12 more than second-placed Joe Flacco. Admittedly, the addition of Gabe Carimi might help those issues, but the Bears did themselves no favours by trading tight end Greg Olsen to the Panthers. I really see the Bears struggling to repeat a push for a play-off berth.
2. New Orleans Saints - It was a difficult choice between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints as to which team might not feature in next season’s play-off picture. On this occasion I have decided that despite many predicting a post-Super Bowl loss slump for the Steelers, they will still remain strong enough to make the play-offs again. It is the Saints that might struggle, however. In last year's wildcard match-up against the Seahawks, the Saints' defense was worryingly exposed, with Seattle exploiting glaring holes in the secondary and in the Saints' inability to prevent the run, a fact that Marshawn Lynch can testify to only too well.
Also, with Jeremy Shockey having departed to the Carolina Panthers, Drew Brees is lacking a tight end he can truly depend on with important check-downs. Head coach Sean Payton is placing a lot of faith in second-year tight end Jimmy Graham, selected in the third round of the 2010 draft, to fill the void left by Shockey. Not only this, but in a league that is growing ever tougher, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now hot on their heels and are a team bursting with exuberance and talent.
1. Indianapolis Colts – Maybe a surprise to most but if Peyton Manning has any reoccurring problems with his recent neck surgery it could bring the curtains down on the Colts’ play-off hopes. Depending on Curtis Painter could prove problematic, even with Reggie Wayne pulling defenses apart. Proven in college but a long way from NFL stardom, Painter could find it difficult dealing with the pressure of so many fans expecting to make the play-offs. Having missed out on the postseason just once in the past 10 years, surely the run has to end at some point. Doesn’t it?
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