Teams poised for a Super Bowl run: Part 1

10. St. Louis Rams – Unlucky to miss out on the play-offs last season, the Rams, led by Coach Spagnuolo, have been busy during the draft and free agency, strengthening their offensive core around young quarterback Sam Bradford. With many believing they will struggle with a tough schedule, I believe they will show their true colours when Philadelphia Eagles come to visit the first week of the season.

In his rookie year, Bradford surpassed Peyton Manning in pass completions and if he continues to follow in Manning’s footsteps, avoiding the sophomore slump, the Rams could make a realistic run for the Lombardi trophy. The Rams were lacking a back-up running back to support Steven Jackson but have recently picked up Cadillac Williams in the free agency. Will he be able to perform though? If not, it puts a lot of pressure on Jackson and could be the difference between success and failure this year.

9. Houston Texans – Brimming with potential, could the Texans finally pip the Indianapolis Colts to the AFC South crown? With a threatening offensive line-up, including Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Jacoby Jones and of course Andre Johnson, they were unfortunate not to come away with a positive record last season. The main problem for the Texans was on defense – last year they had the worst secondary in the league. That could all change this season with the appointment of ex-Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator, although missing out on Nnamdi Asomugha was a huge disappointment.

With Peyton Manning still recovering from a neck injury, the Colts could begin the season with quarterback Curtis Painter, a player with only two miserable games under his belt so far, where he threw two interceptions and was sacked three times. Seemingly anything but a sturdy leader, the Texans could get an early advantage over their league rivals in week one and lead the league from the start.

8. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers are simply too talented not to make a run. They have had a lot of potential for a number of years now but always seem to falter at some point during the postseason. Similar to the Philadelphia Eagles, every year they seem to cruise into the play-offs – with the exception of last year – despite poor performances at some point during the regular season, only to be dumped out unceremoniously before the big game. Granted, last season was a blip, with a few results not going the Chargers’ way, but statistically they have the makings of something great.

The Chargers are still coached by Norv Turner – who is now entering his fifth season – but with such a talented roster at his disposal, many fans see him as a scapegoat for the team’s failure to make the Super Bowl in recent years. Last season the Chargers finished with a 9-7 record, unfortunately falling short of the play-offs, but statistically they had the number one offense and defense in the league. What’s more, they are led by Philip Rivers. He posted the most yards of any quarterback in the league with over 4,700. The defense amassed 47 sacks and gave up the least first downs in the league. They were also placed fourth-best in preventing third down completions.

One key area that needs addressing is the rushing game. With Darren Sproles having signed for the Saints it means Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews must step up, otherwise the Chargers could be made to seriously regret ever letting LaDainian Tomlinson go. I comfortably see the team going 4-1 in their first five games of the season, finally shaking their slow-starter tag. The Chargers will regain their AFC West throne and cause a few upsets in the play-offs.

7. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys have laid dormant for most of Free Agency so far – but don’t let that fool you. At the start of last season, most fans were tipping them for success in the Super Bowl – played at the brand new Cowboys stadium. Despite having all the components to be serious title contenders, a 1-5 start meant the season was all but done before it had really started. And when quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone in week seven, any slim hopes they harbored of reaching the play-offs were gone.

This time round, however, they have Romo back healthy, and head coach Jason Garrett at the helm. Garrett appeared to revitalize the Cowboys in the second half of the season, but by then it was too little, too late. The Cowboys are a talented team and already have all the talent to take them to a Super Bowl. The question that remains is whether Romo can overcome his play-off demons and finally lead his team-mates to the big one. Watch out for Dez Bryant and Miles Austin to put up big numbers this season as well.

6. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens are a team with the talent and potential to go the distance and this season is surely theirs for the taking. If they want to win the Super Bowl they need to do it soon, before their defensive playmakers Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Dominque Foxworth and Ray Lewis are past their best. They also need to find a way to overcome the Steelers when it comes down to the wire.

The Steelers are the biggest obstacle standing between the Ravens and a shot at Super Bowl success, and last season they came ever so close to overcoming their old foes, only to crumble in the second half of their Divisional match-up. However, they have a great opportunity for revenge in the first game of the season at the M&T Bank stadium – one which is surely a ‘must-win’.

Offensively they have the skillset to get the job done. In quarterback Joe Flacco's short career with the Ravens he has demonstrated delicate poise and maturity to lead the Ravens to three consecutive play-off appearances. Accompanied by star running back Ray Rice and wide receiver Anquan Boldin, the Ravens have strengthened their roster still further this season by acquiring fullback Vonta Leach from the Texans.

Five of last year’s play-off teams who will fail to make the postseason this time around

5. Seattle Seahawks – Lucky to make the play-offs in the first place thanks to an inspired performance by Charlie Whitehurst in Week 17, and even luckier to beat the Saints in the wildcard, I doubt the Seahawks will have as much good fortune this time around. Letting Matt Hasselbeck depart to the Tennessee Titans and replacing him with Tarvaris Jackson is a huge gamble, and one that I just don’t see paying off. The other three NFC West teams also look stronger and better equipped to wrestle the division title away from the Seahawks. Without winning the division, it’s unrealistic to believe Seattle has a chance of a wildcard berth with so many other teams in the NFC appearing to be much stronger on paper.

4. Kansas City Chiefs – Last year the Chiefs had a stellar season which was built around their success at Arrowhead Stadium, before faltering at their very own self-proclaimed fortress in the play-offs. The majority of the Chiefs’ triumphs were against below-par teams and it is questionable whether Matt Cassel will have as much success with a tougher schedule. Add this to the fact that the Chargers will likely be back to their very best, and it looks like the Chiefs may have to watch the play-offs from the sidelines this season.

3. Chicago Bears – In 2010, the Bears claimed the NFC North crown ahead of eventual Super Bowl winners, the Green Bay Packers. Chicago’s season was defined by a series of ground-out wins, with only one word coming to mind, ‘ugly’. The Bears will still be coming back with a strong defense this season, held together by LB Brian Urlacher, the heart and soul of the defensive unit.

Of course, they will always have their home-field advantage – the terrible turf, coupled with adverse weather conditions, always seem to trouble any team that sets foot on Soldier Field. However, there is a question mark over quarterback Jay Cutler. Usually a leader brimming with arrogance, he appeared to be dependable throughout 2010, up until his team reached the play-offs. Cutler has shown signs of coming unstuck a little too easily. In the Bears' NFC Championship loss to the Packers, Cutler went off injured at half-time and failed to return from the locker room to support his teammates. For this act of desertion in the team’s hour of need, many fans lost their faith in the QB.

One of the Bears' most glaring weaknesses is their offensive line, although much of this can be attributed to the system employed by offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Last season, the OL struggled mightily to keep Jay Cutler upright, leading to the QB being sacked 52 times - 12 more than second-placed Joe Flacco. Admittedly, the addition of Gabe Carimi might help those issues, but the Bears did themselves no favours by trading tight end Greg Olsen to the Panthers. I really see the Bears struggling to repeat a push for a play-off berth.

2. New Orleans Saints - It was a difficult choice between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints as to which team might not feature in next season’s play-off picture. On this occasion I have decided that despite many predicting a post-Super Bowl loss slump for the Steelers, they will still remain strong enough to make the play-offs again. It is the Saints that might struggle, however. In last year's wildcard match-up against the Seahawks, the Saints' defense was worryingly exposed, with Seattle exploiting glaring holes in the secondary and in the Saints' inability to prevent the run, a fact that Marshawn Lynch can testify to only too well.

Also, with Jeremy Shockey having departed to the Carolina Panthers, Drew Brees is lacking a tight end he can truly depend on with important check-downs. Head coach Sean Payton is placing a lot of faith in second-year tight end Jimmy Graham, selected in the third round of the 2010 draft, to fill the void left by Shockey. Not only this, but in a league that is growing ever tougher, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now hot on their heels and are a team bursting with exuberance and talent.

1. Indianapolis Colts – Maybe a surprise to most but if Peyton Manning has any reoccurring problems with his recent neck surgery it could bring the curtains down on the Colts’ play-off hopes. Depending on Curtis Painter could prove problematic, even with Reggie Wayne pulling defenses apart. Proven in college but a long way from NFL stardom, Painter could find it difficult dealing with the pressure of so many fans expecting to make the play-offs. Having missed out on the postseason just once in the past 10 years, surely the run has to end at some point. Doesn’t it?

The most feared fortresses in the NFL: why home-field advantage can be so important

A hot topic of discussion in the NFL is which venue is the toughest to get a ‘W’ at. There are lots of different reasons why a stadium or field can be difficult to visit – with the weather, type of turf, exuberance of the fans and whether or not the game is played in a dome being key factors.

The question is, which of these aspects contributes most to a home team’s advantage? Is there one team that stands out as being able to use more than one of these factors to their benefit?

Let’s start with intimidating fans. Many teams are notorious for having ruthless supporters, a perfect example being the Philadelphia Eagles fans at Lincoln Financial Field, who are well-known for egging rival teams. Philly’s fans are renowned for being incredibly merciless – and on some occasions even towards their own under-performing players.

It’s not just at the Linc that the callous abusive nature is evident. Cleveland Browns’ fabled Dawg Pound and Oakland Raiders’ Black Hole both create just as uninviting an atmosphere.

But the most talked about fans can be found in Seattle. Known as the ‘12th man’, visitors to Qwest Field have to endure their play calls being drowned out by the decibels of noise the unique stadium design generates. So effective can they be that during the 2005 season a huge 11 false starts were called against the New York Giants.

It is a similar case with the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium and many of the teams that now play in an indoor stadium or dome. These teams can all bring noise to put off their opponents when they need to.

Heinz Field and Soldier Field, home to the Steelers and Bears respectively, earn notable mentions for having the worst playing turf in the league, as well as windy weather conditions. But it is Lambeau Field, home of the Packers, Patriots’ Gillette Stadium and Broncos’ Invesco Field that all experience the worst weather conditions. Especially so when the snow falls in the winter months.

Invesco Field has another trick up its sleeve for opposing teams, however. It’s called Mile High for a reason, and that means the air is much thinner, making it difficult for players to breathe – something the Broncos players are all used to.

But what do the stats say? Well, since the league expanded in 2002, it comes as no surprise that the Patriots are top of the pile with home wins – having a win percentage of 83%. This is closely followed by the Colts with a 79% win rate. Surprisingly, a team that is rarely mentioned when talking about the toughest place to visit, the Ravens, came third in the rankings with 74%.

Fourth were the Steelers and their terrible towels with 71% and in fifth were the Chargers who play their home games at Qualcomm Stadium, the heat being the most problematic issue at their venue. Missing the cut in joint sixth place were the Packers, Eagles, Seahawks and the Vikings. The stats would seemingly suggest that these are the most difficult places to go to and come away with a win.

However, when considering the toughest place to play, it’s understandable that not all the best teams should be ranked at the top. Most of the time good teams will naturally have good home winning percentages. The Colts’ Lucas Oil Stadium is a prime example of this.

Playing in a dome, the Colts do not have to endure adverse weather conditions like they would at other stadia. Their fans are also not renowned for being the loudest or most intimidating in the league, but they continue to deliver when it matters most – perhaps more down to the Peyton Manning factor than any outside influences.

So, after compiling this data about home-field advantage, here are my thoughts about the most impenetrable fortresses in the NFL:

1. Gillette Stadium, New England Patriots – A mix of cold weather and the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady connection.

2. Heinz Field, Pittsburgh Steelers – Terrible Towels, terrible turf and terrible weather: enough said.

3. Lambeau Field, Green Bay Packers– Cold, miserable weather and intimidating ‘cheesehead’ fans.

4. Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia Eagles – Rowdy, ruthless and unforgiving. The fans are as unwelcoming as the weather.

5. Quest Field, Seattle Seahawks – The 12th Man!